If the US economy keeps its head while others are in growth recessions – then tapering can begin in September

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jul 31, 2013 at 10:10am

• The Fed expects US economic growth to accelerate, providing the incentive to begin tapering in September
• Ignis Rates team believes tapering will end earlier than consensus, More



Ignis Rates: Q3 key themes and outlook

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jul 19, 2013 at 11:32am

The Ignis Rates team expects global real forward rates (rates factoring in inflation) to continue to rise through the third quarter. More



Fed tapering is bearish for Europe; saviours of the periphery are suffering from misdiagnosis

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jul 2, 2013 at 11:07am

- Fed tapering is likely to act as a catalyst to spread-widening in Europe
- A reduction in the lower bound deposit rate is highly unlikely pre the German federal elections in Sept More



The shift from false dawns to false dusks in the second half of the VILE decade

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jun 6, 2013 at 12:24pm

We believe that tapering of the Fed’s enormous liquidity programme will begin by the September 18th Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the latest, and the process sh More



UK Pension Regulator increases focus on maximising investment returns

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
May 23, 2013 at 4:01pm

Summary:  The UK Pension Regulator’s annual funding statement promotes increased focus on investment returns. More



Report – read my lips we are recovering; and a very British forward guidance

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
May 21, 2013 at 4:36pm

• MPC has greater confidence in the modest economic recovery. Growth restrained by weak international activity. Little that monetary policy can do to alleviate this problem. More



Ignis Rates: Q2 key themes and outlook

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Apr 30, 2013 at 11:44am

It is a truth universally accepted that ultra-loose monetary policy has driven global financial markets over the past five years. More



Cyprus represents 0.2% of European GDP but the implications of the crisis are far reaching

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Mar 21, 2013 at 10:15am

We believe that the depositor levies on Cyprus represent a fundamental change in European policy. The Troika have made it clear that the contribution of €5. More



Cyprus – Depositor levy means OMT has become lender of very last resort

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Mar 20, 2013 at 4:34pm

• Depositor levies on Cyprus represent a fundamental change in European policy.
• The Troika has made it clear that the contribution of €5. More



Impact of the Italian election on eurozone policy

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Mar 4, 2013 at 3:01pm

The inconclusive Italian election result drives Europe back into the cycle of Crisis, Response, Improvement and Complacency. More



Eurozone economic malaise continues to confound forecasts

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Mar 4, 2013 at 3:01pm

The eurozone economy contracted by 0.6% during the fourth quarter, more than the -0.4% consensus expectation. This left GDP 0.5% lower during the calendar year, after growth of 1. More



UK’s loss of AAA status was no surprise to investors

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Feb 27, 2013 at 10:17am

The UK’s downgrade from AAA is old news as far as investors are concerned and they have been trading on the basis that the UK will lose its rating for several weeks. More



France is not bankrupt, but neither is it AA+ and spreads versus Germany are too tight

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Feb 20, 2013 at 10:11am

• The economic performance gap between France and Germany is wide and set to grow further in the next eight months, yet the benchmark 10yr spot spread has continued to grind tigh More



Key economic themes for the year ahead

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jan 25, 2013 at 11:28am

We are now halfway through the VILE decade, typified by Volatile Inflation and Limited Expansion. Limited expansion means growth that is above zero but below productive potential. More



The World Should be Careful What Japan Wishes for

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Dec 14, 2012 at 12:08pm

Lower House elections will take place this weekend in Japan, which are expected to precipitate a material change in economic, monetary and foreign exchange policy. More



The Autumn Statement – Things can only get Osborne

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Dec 7, 2012 at 4:54pm

It was a clever Autumn Statement, which maximised the growth potential of the meagre resources at the Chancellor’s disposal. More



Mark Carney and other Fairground Attractions

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Nov 30, 2012 at 5:09pm

There will be a further £6.1bn worth of Bank of England Quantitative easing (QE) next March to reinvest the redemption proceeds from the Bank’s holdings of the 4.5% 2013 gilt. More



Roosters singing in horse manure

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Nov 27, 2012 at 11:28am

The eurozone economy entered recession in the third quarter of 2012. Growth contracted by the barest minimum but it is expected to continue in recession through 2013 and 2014. More



One final push from the magisterial Merv

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Nov 2, 2012 at 3:19pm

Third quarter GDP exceeded expectations by a considerable margin, providing some justification for the strong employment growth over the past six months. More



The BOJ is the Spinal Tap of Central Banks

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Nov 1, 2012 at 4:37pm

The Bank of Japan, a serial killer of economic hopes for over two decades, rarely fails to disappoint. More



Japan dips again, BOJ ready to play requiem

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Oct 24, 2012 at 11:05am

The Bank of Japan is expected to ease further at its meeting on October 30th. More



Fed’s Feel the Commitment Policy Fails to Acknowledge Growth

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Oct 17, 2012 at 2:40pm

The Fed is struggling to articulate its message of hope. More



Q4: ‘tis the season to be jolly anglo saxons

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Oct 9, 2012 at 2:24pm

The global economy slowed further during the third quarter as global trade contracted in June and July. More



Rising liability with only minimal representation

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Oct 9, 2012 at 10:48am

Taxation without representation provided the rallying cry from American independence. More



BOJ-ed monetary policy and shifting fears

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Sep 25, 2012 at 11:45am

The minutes of the Bank of Japan’s monthly meeting provides more evidence of the accelerating pace of activism at the central bank. More



Tricky Dicky and the trials of doing the right thing

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Sep 14, 2012 at 9:47am

The article highlights the Fed’s autonomy and willingness to ease policy ahead of presidential elections. More



Will the Bernanke feel lucky on the 13th?

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Sep 11, 2012 at 11:26am

“I know what you are thinking, punk. You are thinking did he fire six shots or only five? Now to tell you the truth I forgot myself in all this excitement. But being this is a . More



Europe, US, UK – Still trying to find a way out of the crisis

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Aug 21, 2012 at 2:27pm

A recent article in Der Spiegel claimed that the European Central Bank (ECB) is prepared to cap rates in various peripheral countries. More



The Wall Street Journal Whispers

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jul 26, 2012 at 4:10pm

The Wall Street Journal’s Fed watcher and soothsayer, Jon Hilsenrath, notes that the central bank is edging closer to action if the economy does not show material improvement. More



July 24th – euro membership only for those who obey orders

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jul 24, 2012 at 4:59pm

Greece is on its death bed and it is only a matter of time before the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) life support machine is switched off. More



A 25bps refinancing rate cut is the least that the ECB can do, and £75bn the most the MPC can do

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jul 5, 2012 at 10:40am

The current controversy surrounding Liborgate will not deter the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee from providing maximum support for the economy by agreeing additional More



Mutti Merkel lets the kids stay up an extra hour before lights out

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jul 2, 2012 at 5:22pm

Leaving aside the adroit expectations management, did the European Summit last week make a material difference to the European Sovereign Debt crisis? The simple answer is a modest More



What the Bundesbank wants, it generally gets

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jun 22, 2012 at 5:26pm

The Greek election changes little other than the timing of the Grexit. The immediate risk has been avoided and the new government will seek an extension of the austerity program. More



Spain – tilting at broken windmills

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jun 1, 2012 at 4:50pm

Spain has too much debt. According to the Bank for International Settlements total debt to GDP was 356% last year and is likely to show a further sharp increase during 2012. More



Grexit and the break-up of the single currency is inevitable, but not in the near term

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
May 29, 2012 at 9:49am

• European politicians are not in favour of its exit, but Greece will inevitably leave the euro
• Merkel is balancing Germany’s self-interest with the Bundesbank’s demand More



The Perils of Conventional Wisdom

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
May 23, 2012 at 11:45am

We believe that the MPC’s decision to put QE on hold was premature and can only be justified in terms of reinforcing its anti-inflation credibility in the face of ill-conceived c More



Francois Hollande – Rouge for Danger

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
May 10, 2012 at 3:29pm

As expected Francois Hollande has triumphed over Nicolas Sarkozy in the French presidential elections and his Socialist Party is favourite to emerge as the leading party in next mo More



The Fed and the lukewarm gruel of growth

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
May 8, 2012 at 4:46pm

The US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.2% during the first quarter of 2012. More



The French presidential election – a point of inflexion for European politics?

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Apr 18, 2012 at 11:38am

Most opinion polls point to a victory for Francois Hollande over Nicolas Sarkozy in the forthcoming French presidential election. More



Fixed Income debate replay – Chris Bowie and Stuart Thomson provide their views on the sector

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Mar 29, 2012 at 5:21pm

Chris Bowie, head of credit and manager of the Ignis Corporate Bond Fund, and Stuart Thomson, chief economist and co-manager of the Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund, disc More



Would you invest in the proposed 100 year gilt?

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Mar 27, 2012 at 11:47am

The debate over 100y bonds has been driven by the low level of spot rates (UKT 4% 2060 were 3. More



Budget preview – the big squeeze and the little squeeze

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Mar 20, 2012 at 3:53pm

Rating agencies assessments from Fitch and Moody’s provide a timely reminder that neither the economic nor political cycles favour any material relaxation of fiscal policy in the More



Bank Deploys Operation Crunch

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Mar 6, 2012 at 11:25am

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee duly provided the additional £50bn worth of conventional gilt purchases that the market had been expecting at its February me More



Central Banker of the Year – Anointing the King

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Feb 13, 2012 at 12:44pm

The Ignis Rates CBOY Committee has awarded Mervyn King their central banker of the year award in 2008, 2009, 2010 and we have once again unanimously voted to award him the title fo More



Bright Light for PIIGS is the Match Sparking the Barbecue

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jan 31, 2012 at 2:15pm

The delayed reaction to the ECB’s three year long-term repo operation has provided a powerful boost to peripheral government bond markets. More



The First Horseman – The White Horse: Conquest – US Banks VS Economics

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jan 30, 2012 at 3:53pm

I watched the Lamb open the first of the seven seals. More



Introduction to Chaos Theory

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jan 30, 2012 at 3:09pm

Everybody is biased, it is important to remember where the annual forecasting recommendations are coming from. More



Dr Pepper’s Guide to 2012 – What’s the Worst that Can Happen? – The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jan 26, 2012 at 4:22pm

Today is the anniversary of the birth of Rabbie Burns, while we celebrate with offal food, it is worth reflecting on his poem “to a mouse”, which contains the verse “but Mous More



2012: Jeux Sans Frontiers – Markets With Tears

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jan 6, 2012 at 2:26pm

The good news is that the global economy will avoid recession during 2012.  The global economy will avoid a double dip recession by a whisker, growing by just 2. More



OBR not OBN, but still VILE

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Nov 30, 2011 at 9:45am

The Office for Budget Responsibility has lost its OBN as it has cut its forecast for 2011 from an initial forecast of 2.1% to 1.7% at the time of the March Budget and further to 0. More



Santa Claus Doesn’t Exist and Neither Does Unlimited ECB QE

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Nov 22, 2011 at 4:06pm

Do you believe in Father Christmas? This is the key question for global financial markets hoping for a temporary solution to the €uropean Sovereign Debt crisis. More



Italy is Just the Tip of the Debt Iceberg

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Nov 16, 2011 at 3:39pm

Italy has had a torrid time over the past month, yet over the past week its benchmark 10yr yield rose by just 9bps to 6.41% having reached a peak of 7. More



Why doesn’t the DMO redeem the War Loan?

by Adam Purzitsky
Senior Quantitative Portfolio Manager, Co-Fund Manager
Nov 10, 2011 at 11:42am

Bond Vigilantes have an interesting post up wondering if the DMO will redeem the war loan. More



Fed Policy from Fingers Crossed Idaho

by Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Nov 8, 2011 at 2:53pm

To quote Anais Nin “we don’t see things as they are, we see things as we are”. More


About Ignis Rates Views

The main author of this journal is Stuart Thomson, fund manager and economist for the Ignis Rates Team at Ignis Asset Management. The other members of the team are involved in forming the views represented here, and will also contribute postings from time to time. We hope you find the content interesting and welcome comments or questions. To find out more about Ignis and our fund range please visit the Ignis website.

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