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Ignis Rates: Q2 key themes and outlook
It is a truth universally accepted that ultra-loose monetary policy has driven global financial markets over the past five years. More
Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Apr 30, 2013 at 11:44am
0 Comments
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Cyprus represents 0.2% of European GDP but the implications of the crisis are far reaching
We believe that the depositor levies on Cyprus represent a fundamental change in European policy. The Troika have made it clear that the contribution of €5.8bn from depositors is non-negotiable but that it is up to Cyprus how these funds are raised. More
Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Mar 21, 2013 at 10:15am
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Cyprus – Depositor levy means OMT has become lender of very last resort
• Depositor levies on Cyprus represent a fundamental change in European policy.
• The Troika has made it clear that the contribution of €5.8bn from depositors is non-negotiable, but that it is up to Cyprus how these funds are raised. More
Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Mar 20, 2013 at 4:34pm
Impact of the Italian election on eurozone policy
The inconclusive Italian election result drives Europe back into the cycle of Crisis, Response, Improvement and Complacency. More
Eurozone economic malaise continues to confound forecasts
The eurozone economy contracted by 0.6% during the fourth quarter, more than the -0.4% consensus expectation. This left GDP 0.5% lower during the calendar year, after growth of 1. More
UK’s loss of AAA status was no surprise to investors
The UK’s downgrade from AAA is old news as far as investors are concerned and they have been trading on the basis that the UK will lose its rating for several weeks. More
France is not bankrupt, but neither is it AA+ and spreads versus Germany are too tight
• The economic performance gap between France and Germany is wide and set to grow further in the next eight months, yet the benchmark 10yr spot spread has continued to grind tigh More
Key economic themes for the year ahead
We are now halfway through the VILE decade, typified by Volatile Inflation and Limited Expansion. Limited expansion means growth that is above zero but below productive potential. More
The World Should be Careful What Japan Wishes for
Lower House elections will take place this weekend in Japan, which are expected to precipitate a material change in economic, monetary and foreign exchange policy. More
The Autumn Statement – Things can only get Osborne
It was a clever Autumn Statement, which maximised the growth potential of the meagre resources at the Chancellor’s disposal. More
Mark Carney and other Fairground Attractions
There will be a further £6.1bn worth of Bank of England Quantitative easing (QE) next March to reinvest the redemption proceeds from the Bank’s holdings of the 4.5% 2013 gilt. More
Roosters singing in horse manure
The eurozone economy entered recession in the third quarter of 2012. Growth contracted by the barest minimum but it is expected to continue in recession through 2013 and 2014. More
One final push from the magisterial Merv
Third quarter GDP exceeded expectations by a considerable margin, providing some justification for the strong employment growth over the past six months. More
The BOJ is the Spinal Tap of Central Banks
The Bank of Japan, a serial killer of economic hopes for over two decades, rarely fails to disappoint. More
Japan dips again, BOJ ready to play requiem
The Bank of Japan is expected to ease further at its meeting on October 30th. More
Fed’s Feel the Commitment Policy Fails to Acknowledge Growth
The Fed is struggling to articulate its message of hope. More
Q4: ‘tis the season to be jolly anglo saxons
The global economy slowed further during the third quarter as global trade contracted in June and July. More
Rising liability with only minimal representation
Taxation without representation provided the rallying cry from American independence. More
BOJ-ed monetary policy and shifting fears
The minutes of the Bank of Japan’s monthly meeting provides more evidence of the accelerating pace of activism at the central bank. More
Tricky Dicky and the trials of doing the right thing
The article highlights the Fed’s autonomy and willingness to ease policy ahead of presidential elections. More
Will the Bernanke feel lucky on the 13th?
“I know what you are thinking, punk. You are thinking did he fire six shots or only five? Now to tell you the truth I forgot myself in all this excitement. But being this is a . More
Europe, US, UK – Still trying to find a way out of the crisis
A recent article in Der Spiegel claimed that the European Central Bank (ECB) is prepared to cap rates in various peripheral countries. More
The Wall Street Journal Whispers
The Wall Street Journal’s Fed watcher and soothsayer, Jon Hilsenrath, notes that the central bank is edging closer to action if the economy does not show material improvement. More
July 24th – euro membership only for those who obey orders
Greece is on its death bed and it is only a matter of time before the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) life support machine is switched off. More
A 25bps refinancing rate cut is the least that the ECB can do, and £75bn the most the MPC can do
The current controversy surrounding Liborgate will not deter the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee from providing maximum support for the economy by agreeing additional More
Mutti Merkel lets the kids stay up an extra hour before lights out
Leaving aside the adroit expectations management, did the European Summit last week make a material difference to the European Sovereign Debt crisis? The simple answer is a modest More
What the Bundesbank wants, it generally gets
The Greek election changes little other than the timing of the Grexit. The immediate risk has been avoided and the new government will seek an extension of the austerity program. More
Spain – tilting at broken windmills
Spain has too much debt. According to the Bank for International Settlements total debt to GDP was 356% last year and is likely to show a further sharp increase during 2012. More
Grexit and the break-up of the single currency is inevitable, but not in the near term
• European politicians are not in favour of its exit, but Greece will inevitably leave the euro
• Merkel is balancing Germany’s self-interest with the Bundesbank’s demand More
The Perils of Conventional Wisdom
We believe that the MPC’s decision to put QE on hold was premature and can only be justified in terms of reinforcing its anti-inflation credibility in the face of ill-conceived c More
Francois Hollande – Rouge for Danger
As expected Francois Hollande has triumphed over Nicolas Sarkozy in the French presidential elections and his Socialist Party is favourite to emerge as the leading party in next mo More
The Fed and the lukewarm gruel of growth
The US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.2% during the first quarter of 2012. More
The French presidential election – a point of inflexion for European politics?
Most opinion polls point to a victory for Francois Hollande over Nicolas Sarkozy in the forthcoming French presidential election. More
Fixed Income debate replay – Chris Bowie and Stuart Thomson provide their views on the sector
Chris Bowie, head of credit and manager of the Ignis Corporate Bond Fund, and Stuart Thomson, chief economist and co-manager of the Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund, disc More
Would you invest in the proposed 100 year gilt?
The debate over 100y bonds has been driven by the low level of spot rates (UKT 4% 2060 were 3. More
Budget preview – the big squeeze and the little squeeze
Rating agencies assessments from Fitch and Moody’s provide a timely reminder that neither the economic nor political cycles favour any material relaxation of fiscal policy in the More
Bank Deploys Operation Crunch
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee duly provided the additional £50bn worth of conventional gilt purchases that the market had been expecting at its February me More
Central Banker of the Year – Anointing the King
The Ignis Rates CBOY Committee has awarded Mervyn King their central banker of the year award in 2008, 2009, 2010 and we have once again unanimously voted to award him the title fo More
Bright Light for PIIGS is the Match Sparking the Barbecue
The delayed reaction to the ECB’s three year long-term repo operation has provided a powerful boost to peripheral government bond markets. More
The First Horseman – The White Horse: Conquest – US Banks VS Economics
I watched the Lamb open the first of the seven seals. More
Introduction to Chaos Theory
Everybody is biased, it is important to remember where the annual forecasting recommendations are coming from. More
Dr Pepper’s Guide to 2012 – What’s the Worst that Can Happen? – The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse
Today is the anniversary of the birth of Rabbie Burns, while we celebrate with offal food, it is worth reflecting on his poem “to a mouse”, which contains the verse “but Mous More
2012: Jeux Sans Frontiers – Markets With Tears
The good news is that the global economy will avoid recession during 2012. The global economy will avoid a double dip recession by a whisker, growing by just 2. More
OBR not OBN, but still VILE
The Office for Budget Responsibility has lost its OBN as it has cut its forecast for 2011 from an initial forecast of 2.1% to 1.7% at the time of the March Budget and further to 0. More
Santa Claus Doesn’t Exist and Neither Does Unlimited ECB QE
Do you believe in Father Christmas? This is the key question for global financial markets hoping for a temporary solution to the €uropean Sovereign Debt crisis. More
Italy is Just the Tip of the Debt Iceberg
Italy has had a torrid time over the past month, yet over the past week its benchmark 10yr yield rose by just 9bps to 6.41% having reached a peak of 7. More
Why doesn’t the DMO redeem the War Loan?
Bond Vigilantes have an interesting post up wondering if the DMO will redeem the war loan. More
Fed Policy from Fingers Crossed Idaho
To quote Anais Nin “we don’t see things as they are, we see things as we are”. More
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