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France is not bankrupt, but neither is it AA+ and spreads versus Germany are too tight
• The economic performance gap between France and Germany is wide and set to grow further in the next eight months, yet the benchmark 10yr spot spread has continued to grind tighter. More
Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Feb 20, 2013 at 10:11am
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Key economic themes for the year ahead
We are now halfway through the VILE decade, typified by Volatile Inflation and Limited Expansion. Limited expansion means growth that is above zero but below productive potential. More
Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jan 25, 2013 at 11:28am
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One final push from the magisterial Merv
Third quarter GDP exceeded expectations by a considerable margin, providing some justification for the strong employment growth over the past six months. However, the figure was distorted by the Olympics and the Jubilee holiday, which together contributed 80% of this unexpectedly strong growth. More
Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Nov 2, 2012 at 3:19pm
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Bright Light for PIIGS is the Match Sparking the Barbecue
The delayed reaction to the ECB’s three year long-term repo operation has provided a powerful boost to peripheral government bond markets. More
Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jan 31, 2012 at 2:15pm
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The First Horseman – The White Horse: Conquest – US Banks VS Economics
I watched the Lamb open the first of the seven seals. Then I heard one of four living creatures say in a voice like thunder “come and see!” I looked, and there before me was a white horse! Its rider held a bow, and he was given a crown, and he rode out as a conqueror bent on conquest. More
Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Jan 30, 2012 at 3:53pm
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Italy is Just the Tip of the Debt Iceberg
Italy has had a torrid time over the past month, yet over the past week its benchmark 10yr yield rose by just 9bps to 6.41% having reached a peak of 7.56% prior to the resignation of Prime Minister Berlusconi and passage of further draconian austerity measures. More
Stuart Thomson
Chief Economist, Co-Fund Manager
Nov 16, 2011 at 3:39pm
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Why doesn’t the DMO redeem the War Loan?
Bond Vigilantes have an interesting post up wondering if the DMO will redeem the war loan. After a moments reflection I have to wonder, why wouldn’t they? It’s seems to be a clearly profitable trade. More
Adam Purzitsky
Senior Quantitative Portfolio Manager, Co-Fund Manager
Nov 10, 2011 at 11:42am
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